I was asked for help on a franchise business plan. One of the elements was determining where on the product/service life cycle curve the franchise sits. It is always helpful in any Industry and Market Analysis to get a macro view of where the product/service is in its life cycle. What is the product/service life cycle?
It is the birth, growth, progression and ultimate passing of any product/service. For example a CD came into the market around the early 90s. This is the birth/introduction stage. It gained popularity and was one of the most preferred method of data transfer until recently. So for the next 10 years it was in the growth and in the early 2010s entered the maturity phase. Now in the second half of the 2010s it is in the decline phase. Last week I purchased a new laptop and installed Microsoft Office via online. No more CDs.
Of course, not all products/services will die out. They may die out eventually, but will make one or two more resurgences. Take for example, baking soda (sodium bicarbonate). The earliest use of naturally forming sodium bicarbonate was used by ancient Egyptians as a component of the paints they used in hieroglyphics. Sodium bicarbonate was also used in the 1800s in commercial fishing to prevent freshly caught fish from spoiling. Baking soda continues its long life cycle in many many uses including cleaning, cooking, neutralization of acids and bases, not to mention the elementary school volcano science experiment, and more.
Maybe there will be a new use for CDs that will revive the CD but without major modification (which will essentially change the actual product and will actually create a new/different product) it will be unlikely. Wherever your product/service is in its life cycle, with enough investigation, a new spin could be created to find a niche demand (market segment).