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thinking outside the box

Adaptability is the most powerful trait

You have probably noticed the deluge of advertising that is targeted to the new reality of being at home. This is obviously a response to the global pandemic we are all being affected by. The following is a breakdown of what is happening and what your business can do about it:

Marketing Strategy Marketing Strategy

Aired prior to the COVID-19 crisis but replayed recently Campbell’s realized that people are stockpiling canned food. Set to a wholesome and nostalgic soundtrack without pandering to panic buying, they capitalized on an opportunity to remind customers of a classic pairing. On a side note, the music choice was oddly relevant — Thank You For Being a Friend was the theme song to the ’80s sitcom The Golden Girls and the elderly are among the most vulnerable to COVID-19.

Also, more people are telecommuting and are realizing their home computers might not be suitable for work so Dell aired a commercial for one of their newest laptops. Peloton, home office chairs, etc. are all advertising the benefits of being healthy and productive at home. Also, mental health app Talkspace, Delta Airlines offering free flights for medical volunteers, online education, bidets, and more are using this opportunity to advertise their products and services.

Seize the Opportunity

Adaptability Charles Darwin - Your Startup Guru
Attribution-NoDerivs 2.0 Generic (CC BY-ND 2.0)

When disruptions happen, it is important to consider alternatives in order to adapt to the new environment. I have advised a new restaurant client to pivot their business model from a brick and mortar location to a commercial kitchen or food truck and adjusted their ad hoc financial projection model to reflect the pivot. Of course, depending on the stage of a business pivoting to a commercial kitchen or truck is not an option; which is why I always provide tailored consultations to each client.

Many people have a lot of downtime now with not having to go into work. It is a good time to take a break from watching the news and start mapping out the idea that you’ve been mulling. Who is your target market? Where will you be located? What are your startup costs? These are all questions you should know the answers to or be actively seeking if you are serious about taking the next step. If you do not know the answers or want a second opinion on, I always provide free consultation so send me an email. Afterwards, those pushup challenges on social media are also a good healthy distraction too from all the dire news.

These are better practices than gouging prices like that hand sanitizer guy.

sanitizer price gouging guy

PSA

The past is the best indicator of the future unless you work hard to change the same old patterns.

A great episode from a great podcast

Peloton - Your Startup Guru

NPR’s How I Built This is a fantastic podcast that brings the stories behind some of the world’s best-known companies. How I Built This interviews innovators, entrepreneurs and idealists about the movements they built.

Peloton co-founder:  John Foley

In this episode, they interview John Foley, one of the co-founders of Peloton; the fitness and media company that you’ve probably seen commercials for.

In the interview, they greatly undervalued John Foley’s network and experience but nonetheless, this episode touched on several relevant topics my clients often face.  I picked this episode because it was a little more in-depth and enlightening than other episodes in that Foley he talks about:

  • having the discussion with this wife about moving in with her parents if the company fails,
  • how everyone is similarly able including Harvard MBAs,
  • the CEO being the janitor when starting out; something I discussed in a previous post about bootstrapping
  • how VCs are not very adventurous,
  • how Peloton is only recently profitable after 7 years

There are also great questions asked by interviewer that touches on market trends such as arcades no longer thriving due to user experience-to-price dynamics (i.e. video game consoles vs arcades due to quality of experience), penetration/awareness strategy which led to their distribution model given that malls are making an industry correction, and lastly the trademark question: “How much of this was because of your intelligence and hard work, and how much of this was just luck?”

FYI, I always discuss market and industry trends, launch and penetration strategy, as well as bootstrapping in all my business plans.

The entire podcast can be heard here

See a need, fill a need

bigweld

Often entrepreneurs come up with their business idea because of their own personal experiences or that of someone in their circle of friends & family.  This is a great strategy but sometimes doesn’t tap into a market large enough.

In episode #850 of Planet Money, The Fake Review Hunter the hosts interview Tommy Noonan, creator of SupplementReviews.com.  SupplementReviews.com is a highly popular website that provides unbiased user reviews of health supplements.  However, Tommy soon found that there were reviews that were suspiciously positive.  Because Tommy’s entire website was based on authentic user reviews, fake reviews became an existential threat.  After a lot of research, he found that some of these reviews were being written by the supplement companies themselves.  He uncovered so many fake reviews that he started noticing a pattern; almost like a modus operandi.  They were often single product/brand reviews, used fake pictures, lots of reviews in a short period of time, and/or only had one review.  Sometimes the “reviewer” would give positive reviews for one brand and negative ones to competing brands.

This is when Tommy had his a-ha moment.  If his website had fake reviews, others would also probably have them too.  So he created another business that aligned with one of the juggernauts of the internet, Amazon.  Tommy’s site which uncovers fake reviews is called ReviewMeta.com.

 

How to find a need

As mentioned at the top of the post, most rely only on their personal experiences or that within their network.  Sometimes the need is obvious.  For example, at a 7-Eleven in Shirley, New York one 7-Eleven sells more coffees than any other franchise in the US; all because of one store manager than knows virtually every customer’s name and greats them.  No special location mojo or customer flow algorithm, just old fashioned customer service. You can read more about it in my post Competitive Advantage and Coffee.

Other times it is not that obvious.  In that case, you have to hustle in a different manner.   How do you do more “work” when you’re already working to the bone?  Find efficiencies:  know your customers, know your competitors, lower your expenses,  by working to learn more doing more research in episode #700 of Planet Money, Peanuts and Cracker Jack.  In Boston’s Fenway Park, Jose Magrass is the top seller.  One year, on opening day he sold 500 hot dogs, $2750 worth of hot dogs in a single game.  In fact, Jose has been the top seller for over 5 years.  Part of his secret?  He has a spreadsheet where he analyzes many factors beyond just the weather such as what his competing vendors are selling and what fans are likely to purchase depending on the price of their seats.  For example, behind home plate diet coke sold better because possibly that is where the “vain people” sit.  That kind of analysis is impressive.

It’s not too late

age-final-4

According to data from the Census Bureau and IRS the average age of successful business founders is 42; so the 20 year old entrepreneur is a true rarity.

The team looked at data around the 2.7 million people who founded businesses between 2007-14 and went on to hire at least one employee. Along with average entrepreneur age, they also learned those new ventures with the highest growth had an average founder age of 45.

The researchers broke out the data into high-tech employment, VC-backed firms, and patenting firms. Across the entire United States, the average founder ages were 43, 42, and 45, respectively for those divisions.

Part of this reason is because experience, social capital, skill sets, etc. play a large factor in the success of a business.  So even if you’re over 40, roughly 50% of successful entrepreneurs are above that age.

Read the complete article here.

 

Another Happy Client

sans bar

Sans Bar is a one-of-a-kind sober bar in Austin, TX.  Their mission is to provide a safe, sober environment for adults to celebrate life while promoting personal and social wellness.

I had the pleasure of creating financial projections for founder, Chris Marshall.  With the help of this important document, entrepreneurs can see how much they need to make and save in order to meet their financial needs; in addition to many many other uses.  You can read more about the importance of a financial plan.

The Cryptocurrency Conundrum

bitcoin-2902690_640

Cryptocurrencies took quite a hit in 2018 has not been a good year for the market so far. Having reached a valuation of $834 billion as of January 7, 2018, CoinMarketCap reported that the market witnessed a drastic plunge of about 66%, losing over $553 billion. Bitcoin recorded a huge loss of over 50% in February, with valuation dropping below $7,000. Ethereum and Ripple also suffered similar drops, both recording losses of over 40% during the same month.  Even as of late March, the leading currencies have not bounced back as of March 21, 2018.

bitcoin price


crypto prices

 

Most signs point to a bubble.  Market speculation that drove prices to an untenable price for the time being.  This bubble was exacerbated by the unregulated nature of cryptocurrency.  For example, banks are required to physically hold a certain amount of cash in reserve, also known as Regulation D, which allows for an amount of liquidity in the market in case of lean times.  Given the unregulated nature of cryptocurrencies it is possible that market manipulation was also behind the plunge. In 2013, Bitcoin rose from $150 to $1,000 within a period of 2 months. A rise that researchers have found was caused by one person. Last month, one anonymous investor bought $400 million in Bitcoin.  For securities transactions such as stocks and bonds, the identities of the buyers and sellers are known and recorded.  In cryptocurrency transactions, the transaction is known but not the entities.

However, to understand a little about what is happening, it helps to understand what cryptocurrency is.

 

What is Cryptocurrency?

According to Wikipedia:

A cryptocurrency (or crypto currency) is a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange that uses cryptography to secure its transactions, to control the creation of additional units, and to verify the transfer of assets.[1][2][3]Cryptocurrencies are classified as a subset of digital currencies and are also classified as a subset of alternative currencies and virtual currencies. Cryptocurrencies use decentralized control[4] as opposed to centralized electronic money and central banking systems.[5] The decentralized control of each cryptocurrency works through a blockchain, which is a public transaction database, functioning as a distributed ledger.[6]

Bitcoin, created in 2009, was the first decentralized cryptocurrency.[7] Since then, numerous other cryptocurrencies have been created.[8] These are frequently called altcoins, as a blend of alternative coin.[9][10][11]

That is a lot to digest so to summarize and generalize:  cryptocurrency is an electronic asset that is created through among other methods, “mining” (the details of digital asset creation go beyond this post). Once this digital asset is created, a record of its created is added to a decentralized ledger.  This ledger is known as a blockchain.  Blockchain is like a title chain in real estate; everyone knows who owned it in the past and who owns it now.  Furthermore, transactions using cryptocurrency is also recorded in the blockchain.

The blockchain is starting to look more useful than the actual cryptocurrencies, but more on that in a future post.

 

Differences from other currencies

Crypto isn’t going away but probably won’t replace sovereign currency because it doesn’t have that backing of an entire nation. There’s more power when you have a nation that promises the worth of something vs many individuals that aren’t a cohesive entity

A nation has natural resources, a military, existing contracts, labor forces, etc. that can be used to back the value of their currency. Crypto does not. They are kinda like fidget spinners. Some people highly value it and trade it but not likely to replace dollars.

 

Similarities to commodities

More than a “currency” cryptocurrency seems to have properties similar to commodities such as silver in that people can “mine” it too.  That said no government uses, say rubies, as their official currency.

Cryptocurrencies are also relatively unregulated like commodities.  Beyond futures contracts and derivative markets the industry did not see much action beyond the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936.  Other than a few laws, regulatory bodies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission did not see much action until Dodd–Frank was enacted in response to the 2008 financial crisis.

For the reasons mentioned, it seems like a judge also agrees that cryptocurrencies are commodities.  Maybe it is time to call them cryptocommodities.

 

Are Cryptocurrencies here to stay?

Probably not going away but many hurdles block mainstream adoption. Of course, if a government officially recognizes it then it’s all systems go.  For now, China says no and S. Korea is hesitant.  Furthermore, Warren Buffett considers cryptocurrencies speculative.

Cryptocurrency will probably end up like precious gems and metals; worth something but will not upend sovereign currency. Buying a car in wheat is possible but not as convenient as with traditional currencies.  Although some dealerships accept some cryptocurrencies.

Festivals, Farmer’s Markets, Conventions, oh my!

ultra-music-festival-week-1-miami-fl-2013
Ultra Music Festival – Miami, Florida

It’s summer and festival season is here.  Events are big business with over 87 million people attending trade shows, conventions, & conferences; while 32 million people attend music festival.  Some annual industry and market stats:

  • Trade shows, conventions, conferences
    • Number: 284,600 annually
      • There are 248 convention centers in the US with a total of 56.29M prime exhibit space.
      • The majority of conventions (21%) have 1,000 – 2,499 attendees
    • Participants: 87,728,000
      • Average attendee spends 8.3 hours viewing trade show exhibits
      • 81% of trade show attendees have buying authority
  • Music festivals, fairs, and other festivals
    • Number: 1,413 annually. Music festivals alone total over 800 annually
    • Attendees: Over 102 million people annually. 32 million people go to at least one music festival annually.
      • Attendees spend on average, $207 a year on live music events and digital music/streaming
      • 1/3 of all festival fans go to more than one festival per year
  • Farmers’ Markets
    • Number: +8,400 markets that convene regularly
    • Attendees: 310,800,000
      • Farmers’ market shoppers spend a mean dollars/week was $25.38
      • Shopper visit an average of 6.12 times/month

 

What It Means To You

Events are targeted.  So attendees are in your market, many in your target market.  Renting a booth, depending on the event, can be fairly inexpensive.  This is an economical means of raising awareness for your product/service for the following reasons:

  1. You are not locked into a commercial lease contract
  2. Can test the viability of your product/service
  3. Get targeted market feedback

Some of what you may need depending on the event:

  • Mobile merchant services such as Square
  • Email collection method
  • Banners and booth appeal
  • Ready-for-market product/service
    • Or compelling marketing materials (videos, images, samples) of your product/service.

Read more about festivals and marketing.

Contact me and let’s see what strategy works best for your business.

The importance of niche-ing

Question:  How should new products/services be created?

A)  Make a novel untested product/service then find customers for the product/service?

Or

B)  Find a group of customers, find one of that group’s unmet need, then create a product/service to address than unmet need?

Answer:  B

Reason:  The development process of the product/service will take time irregardless of choice A or B.  However, with choice B, the likelihood or having to rework the product/service to make it more closely meet the needs of the target market is lower.  Also, with choice B, you have a better idea of the size of the target market.  Having a market large enough to grow your business is very important.  More on that below.

A great example of choice B is Girls Auto Clinic.  Girls Auto Clinic is a brilliant combination of female-focused auto repair shop and salon.

Founder Patrice Banks felt what many of us feel when car issues come up:

“I felt like an auto-airhead. I hated all my experiences going in for an oil change, being upsold all the time for an air filter,’ she said. “Any time a dashboard light came on, I panicked.” – Patrice Banks, Girls Auto Clinic Founder

Of course many people come up with business ideas like how Patrice did:  through personal experience.  However, where most people fail is that their own experience might be too niche.  In other words, the market might be too small.  How do you know if your market is too niche?  Market research.  Market research is a process of analyzing factors such as demographics, purchasing habits, direct and indirect competitors, macro and microeconomics, and other elements.  As much art as science, thorough market research is a critical step before moving forward with any concept.

Market research is one of the many services I offer at the most competitive prices in the industry.  Contact me and let’s find your niche for your new business.

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